I never had a doubt in being confident about Indian Markets, because we are a nation of 1.3 Billion and we don't any outside consumers! Our internal consumption can churn the economy around 4-6% annually without making any solid efforts. Anything over and above it is a bonus. China's economy is mostly concentrated on manufacturing and we have a major chunk of the services sector. The only thing which concerns me and many others around the world is the large debt pile building over the GDP. The crash we now may come can be dangerous than 2001 and 2008. Because we are living in an economy that is getting concentrated over loss-making apps and billions are getting burned over idiot CEOs who didn't like to work 9 to 5. Because there was a time when Google was successful but didn't have any revenue stream. That excuse is given by the majority but Google's revenue is majority based on advertisement and also they varied range of original products. Taxi, Food, Education apps don't have their own assets and are largely dependent on marketing and sales team making fool of customers but they aren't getting repeat customers, so they have to find a new fool every time. China's crackdown on Ed-Tech should give a lesson to credit providers that invest in the real economy and don't build their castle's in thin air.
Now coming back to Nifty, even though RBI may warn about economy and markets going, either way, technicals of the market shows that Nifty is getting ready for another show time for Bulls which may lead Nifty to 18,000 and above. If inflation is the cause of concern then why RBI is being hesitant to print notes or increase Repo-Rate. No companies are taking benefit of easy credit which Government and RBI propagate rather companies are taking even cheaper ways or are paying off dates before time. So RBI should increase Repo-Rate which can lead to more money to the people who are saving money and can lead to extra consumption. The excess liquidity in the markets is coming only from the people who used to save money in form of FDs, if that is the thing then this bull bubble can collapse anytime, no one can tell when. History says that we don't learn anything from it. In some ways market is over-optimistic regarding demand when we face uncertainty and unemployment. We have to move forward forgetting Corona and red tapes being implemented overnight without discussing with anyone. The unorganised economy is facing real trouble and that should reflect in markets sooner or later. But the excess money is only reflecting Nifty being in a bull run and we should follow where the market takes us. And being a market enthusiast I will be more than happy to see Nifty at 18,000. Now I will discuss who can lead in the Nifty bull run and who may get left behind.
There are numerous stocks that have zero in balance sheets and P&L statements but also have run some 100-500-1000 per cent, having major chunk among the hands of retail or the people of category 'Risk Hain Toh Ishq Hain", will simply get wiped out just like clean swipe in cricket. No hard feelings, because this market doesn't work like that. Someone has to take the heat. No clear timing can be given but between 2022-2024 we should see the reality of markets. But one should always take the opportunity of correction for buying good businesses. I am also in a dilemma that next decade will be lead by which sector. Some voices are coming electric-electric but it is just a noise of bull market like renewable is a great new thing but how many have made real money in renewables is a million-dollar question? When the real-time electricity will come it will reflect in the revenue of companies and in the P&L statement till then it's only a daydreaming or fantasy to find another Microsoft, Google, Reliance or Infosys!
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